ABSTRACT
Serologic markers that predict severe COVID-19 disease trajectories could enable early medical interventions and reduce morbidity and mortality. We found that distinct features of IgG Fab and Fc domain structures were present within three days of a positive test that predicted two separate disease trajectories in a prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19. One trajectory was defined by early production of neutralizing antibodies and led to mild disease. A distinct trajectory, characterized by an initial period of mild symptoms followed by rapid progression to more severe outcomes, was predicted by the absence of early neutralizing antibody responses with concomitant production of afucosylated IgGs. Elevated frequencies of monocytes expressing the receptor for afucosylated IgGs, Fc{gamma}RIIIa (CD16a), were an additional antecedent in patients with the more severe outcomes. In mechanistic studies, afucosylated immune complexes in the lung triggered an inflammatory infiltrate and cytokine production that was dependent on CD16a. Finally, in healthy subjects, mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccination elicited neutralizing antibodies that were enriched for Fc fucosylation and sialylation and distinct from both infection-induced trajectories. These data show the importance of combined Fab and Fc domain functions in the antiviral response, define an early antibody signature in people who progressed to more severe COVID-19 outcomes and have implications for novel therapeutic strategies targeting Fc{gamma}RIIIa pathways.